In the midst of a raging controversy last week between Police Complaints Authority Director David West and then attorney general Anand Ramlogan over witness tampering, a fourth Cabinet reshuffle mere months before the next general election, and the firing of two People’s Partnership (PP) ministers, a recent poll has shown that if a general election were called now, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar would be the top choice for this country’s next PM over People’s National Movement (PNM) leader Dr Keith Rowley.
However, the poll also revealed that voters would support the PNM over the UNC or PP Government because the PNM was seen as the most experienced party in existence. While Persad-Bissessar was credited with doing a good job and trying to improve the lives of citizens in the last 57 months, she was given a thumbs down for lack of leadership skills, not following up on election promises, and failing to be more assertive with her Cabinet.
Those polled felt Rowley could achieve first world status and has true courage and leadership. These were some of the findings in a Trinidad Guardian poll conducted and supervised by Prof Derek Chadee, director of the ANSA McAL Psychological Research Centre, University of the West Indies, St Augustine. The poll, a nationwide survey held from January 29 to February 3, interviewed 507 respondents over the age of 18 selected by a random digit dialling method.
The intention of this survey was to assess popular opinion on a number of major issues. Overall, the sample comprised 35 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 39 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 25 per cent Mixed persons and one per cent other groups. More than half of the sample was female at 53 per cent. The margin of error is plus or minus four per cent.
A total of 34 per cent of the respondents voted in favour of Persad-Bissessar, while Rowley trailed closely behind with 24 per cent. Interestingly, 25 per cent were undecided. Three per cent said they would throw their support behind Trade Minister Vasant Bharath, while Independent Liberal Party leader Jack Warner attained two per cent.
One per cent of the respondents said they would give Prakash Ramadhar, David Abdulah, Patrick Manning and Penelope Beckles the nod, while Stacy Roopnarine, Faris Al-Rawi, Gary Griffith and Basdeo Panday were given less than one per cent.
Eight per cent gave no answer. The “undecided” group was somewhat equally distributed with 37 per cent Afro-Trinidadians, 32 per cent Mixed and 30 per cent Indo-Trinidadians.
The poll showed that females were more likely to support Persad-Bissessar than Rowley. The poll also showed that of those who supported Persad-Bissessar, 21 per cent were aged 18 to 35, 16 per cent aged 36 to 50, 38 per cent aged 51 to 65 and 25 per cent aged 66 years and older validated Persad-Bissessar.
The age distribution of support for Rowley was 25 per cent for those aged 18 to 35, 19 per cent aged 36 to 50, 33 per cent aged 51 to 65 and 24 per cent aged 66 years and older. It was observed that the young were more likely to be undecided. When respondents were asked: “If a general election were held today, which political party would you vote for?” The PNM came out on top with 21 per cent. Following closely behind was the PP with 18 per cent, while the UNC acquired 13 per cent.
The COP and ILP captured one per cent, while MSJ got less than one per cent. Only five per cent gave a “no response” answer, while one per cent did not vote. Surprisingly, 39 per cent were undecided. For analyses, the poll showed that if the UNC, COP and PP were merged, they would obtain 32 per cent of the votes. Of the people who were “undecided,” 38 per cent were Afro-Trinidadians, 32 per cent Mixed and 30 per cent Indo-Trinidadians.
Overall, those who would vote for the PP by gender were 58 per cent females and 42 per cent males, whereas support for the PNM was in the ratio of 55 per cent males to 45 per cent females. Data suggested that females were more likely to support the PP. Of the people who were undecided, 54 per cent were females and 46 per cent males.
The age distribution for people indicating they would vote for the PP was 20 per cent aged 18 to 35, 19 per cent aged 36 to 50, 37 per cent aged 51 to 65 and 24 per cent aged 66 years and older. At least 25 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 35, 21 per cent aged 36 to 50, 33 per cent aged 51 to 65 and 21 per cent aged 66 years and older said they would vote in favour of the PNM.
The “undecided” group comprised 30 per cent aged 18 to 35, 31 per cent aged 36 to 50, 25 per cent aged 51 to 65 and 14 per cent aged 66 years and older. Younger people were more likely be undecided. Exploring by education, of the people who said PP, 38 per cent were secondary educated, 25 per cent tertiary, 12 per cent technical/vocational, and 25 per cent primary.
Of individuals who responded PNM, 43 per cent were secondary educated, 23 per cent tertiary, 21 per cent technical/vocational, and 13 per cent primary. Of those who were “undecided” 38 per cent were tertiary educated, 35 per cent secondary, 12 per cent technical/vocational and 14 per cent primary. The question: How would you rate the performance of the Prime Minister to date? posed varying views.
In the categories “extremely poor” and “excellent” Persad-Bissessar obtained 12 per cent. Twenty per cent gave her a “poor” rating, while she obtained 21 per cent “good” and 35 per cent “fair.” Analysing responses by ethnicity showed that 51 per cent of Afro-Trinidadians, 38 per cent Mixed respondents and 12 per cent Indo-Trinidadians rated the PM’s performance as “poor.” Of those most likely to rate the PM “fair,” Mixed respondents were the largest group at 45 per cent.
The results also show that 61 per cent Indo-Trinidadians, 12 per cent Afro-Trinidadians and 17 per cent Mixed respondents gave a “good” rating. There were marginal differences across the ages groups. Specifically, 34 per cent of those aged 18 to 35, 39 per cent aged 36 to 50, 27 per cent aged 51 to 65 and 31 per cent aged 66 years and older gave a “poor” rating.
Similarly, 42 per cent of the respondents aged 18 to 35, 36 per cent aged 36 to 50, 32 per cent aged 51 to 65 and 29 per cent aged 66 years and older reported “fair.” Among those who rated her “good,” 23 per cent were aged 18 to 35, 25 per cent aged 36 to 50, 41 per cent aged 51 to 65 and 41 per cent aged 66 years and older. Analysing the responses by education showed that tertiary and secondary educated people were more likely to say “fair” and primary educated were more likely to say “good”.
Specifically, for those who indicated “poor” 37 per cent were technical/vocational, 34 per cent primary, 33 per cent secondary and 30 per cent tertiary educated people. The response of “fair” was given by 39 per cent tertiary, 38 per cent secondary, 29 per cent technical/vocational and 27 per cent primary educated respondents.
Furthermore, the performance of the PM to date was given “good” ratings by 40 per cent primary, 34 per cent technical/vocational, 32 per cent tertiary and 30 per cent secondary educated individuals.
When asked If a general election were held today, whom would you support as Prime Minister?
Kamla Persad Bissessar 34%
Keith Rowley 24%
Undecided (Don’t know and None) 25%
Vasant Bharath 3%
Jack Warner 2%
Prakash Ramadhar 1%
David Abdulah 1%
Penelope Beckles 1%
Patrick Manning 1%
Stacy Roopnarine < 1%
Faris Al-Rawi < 1%
Gary Griffith < 1%
Basdeo Panday < 1%
No Response 8%
If a general election were held today, which political party would you vote for?
PNM 21%
People’s Partnership 18%
UNC 13%
Undecided (Don’t know & None) 39%
COP 1%
ILP 1%
Movement for Social Justice <1%
Do not vote 1%
No response 5%
How would you rate the performance of the Prime Minister to date?
POOR
• Lacks some leadership skills
• Didn’t follow up on election promises
• Ministers did not support her
• Needs to be more assertive with her Cabinet
FAIR
• Needs the full cooperation of her Cabinet
• Helped with the improvement of some things like old age pension
• She is trying but some of the same problems still exist.
• The PP have made lots of promises which are still to be fulfilled.
GOOD
• She is doing a good job but she needs the support of her ministers
• She has done a lot to try to improve the lives of people in society
• She has been doing her best.
• She has lots of experience and is showing her experience by keeping her team focused
If a general election was held today, which political party would you vote for?
People’s Partnership
• Plenty things have changed for the better.
• They are proving to be quite effective.
• The party is trying to fix the problems left by the previous government.
• They have some good leaders within the party.
• There was never any accountability under the last government.
PNM
• The PNM is the most experienced party. They have been around since we gained independence.
• Kamla never in the country; she always abroad on a trip.
• The PP has not done anything yet.
None
• All of them are the same.
• All these parties do is make promises to the people and when they come in power you never see them again.
• They only care about themselves not the people.
• All parties want is your vote.
If a general election is held today, whom would you support as Prime Minister?
Persad Bissessar
• She is proving to be quite a capable leader.
• She has some good ideas on how to better the country.
• She is working hard to resolve the problems in the country.
Rowley
• With Rowley it is possible to achieve first world status.
• He has loads of experience.
• He has true courage and leadership.