One of this country’s leading pollster said the proposed changes to the electoral boundaries could be the single most important factor in determining the results of this year’s general election.
Principal consultant at Solution by Simulation, Nigel Henry, was predicting the election-day impact of the changes in the latest Elections and Boundaries Commission’s (EBC) report which is expected to be laid in the House of Representatives today. He told the T&T Guardian yesterday the process to alter boundaries was a simple one.
According to Henry, any constituency with more than ten per cent of 25,000 registered voters “will lose polling divisions and any constituency that has under ten per cent of 25,000 voters will gain polling divisions.” He said there was no mystery about the EBC report as the law provided for it to be done every five years. Henry said polls showed the contest would be close. He said the proposed changes may be more important than how people vote.
“It is difficult to overstate the importance of the boundaries report as the simple fact is that under the current environment of a ‘neck and neck’ race, the contents of the report will decide who will form the next Government,” he said. He said a situation similar to what happened in St Kitts could happen here, where the then Government had lost the polls because it attempted to change the boundaries and was challenged in the Privy Council. He said the Government lost the legal battle and also the election.
“We will see a similar situation in T&T, depending on what the report says,” Henry added. He said changes were expected to Chaguanas East, which may gain polling divisions. He said “depending on how the EBC chooses to give Chaguanas East more voters, it will most probably become more UNC leaning.”
Henry said changes were expected in the boundaries of the marginal seat of Barataria-San Juan which has less than the required amount of voters. He said that constituency was set to gain polling divisions. He said if the new polling divisions come from the St Ann’s East “it will be tipped towards the People’s National Movement (PNM) and become more marginal.” He said possible boundary changes in San Fernando West could also have a significant effect on which party won that seat, which is now occupied by a People’s Partnership MP.
“Depending on where the EBC has decided to move voters from to San Fernando West, it will be very significant. Henry said if “voters” were taken from San Fernando East the PNM would benefit and if they were moved from Oropouche East the United National Congress (UNC) will benefit. Henry said St Joseph could be the game changer in the election, which is constitutionally due by September.
“If the Elections and Boundaries Commission choose to fix the situation in Barataria/San Juan by moving voters from St Joseph into Barataria-San Juan that could have a decisive impact on the electoral map,” he added. Opposition MP Colm Imbert raised concern over the proposed changes earlier this week saying it was going to give the incumbent party the advantage.