Political analysts Dr Winford James and Maukesh Basdeo have agreed that if the United National Congress (UNC) were to fight the general election alone, it would lose more than it gained.
They also feel that the COP’s chances are slim if it fights the election by itself. Both analysts feel that the UNC needs to maintain its ties with the amalgamation of the Congress of the People (COP), National Joint Action Committee and Tobago Organisation of the People.
The men weighed in on the issue as the People’s Partnership Government celebrates its fifth anniversary at Constantine Park, Macoya, today.
Basdeo drew reference to the 2000 general election, which the UNC contested on its own under the leadership of Basdeo Panday.
“The UNC won the election that year,” Basdeo recalled.
Shortly after, Basdeo said, the UNC held its internal elections and a rift developed within the party’s hierarchy.
In 2001, Basdeo said, a fresh election was called and the UNC lost out to the PNM.
Basdeo said 15 years later, he did not expect the conditions and political landscape to be the same, as multiple parties had been formed in the last two years.
James: COP a dead horse
James said the UNC’s negatives outweighed its achievements, and the party stood to lose more if it went alone.
“Can they make independent thinkers and people migrate from other parties? I personally can’t see that happening.”
James was a little more critical of the COP, stating that the party had lost its “mojo,” was a “shell of itself” and a “dead horse” in the political arena and could not win one seat if it broke away from the partnership.
“The power of inclusion got the COP where it is today. The energy in 2010 got people to realign themselves in favour of the coalition. They got votes on that basis.”
James said the public had lost all trust and confidence in the COP because it had given up its sovereignty.
“They are not the force they were in 2010. It is clear they are a spent force.”
He said the COP came under a further cloud when its chairman Nicole Dyer-Griffith resigned and formed her own party recently.
“Also the executive of the party has changed its shape to a point where the party is unrecognisable.”
James said the Tunapuna, Lopinot/Bon Air West, D’Abadie/O’Meara and Arima seats which the COP won in 2010 were likely to return to the PNM.
“The COP won these seats by small margins. They have done so much to alienate people who have migrated from the PNM and the independent voters that swung with the promise of an inclusive government. We have not seen that.”
Samuel: People will set you up for the kill
Arima MP Rodger Samuel believes the COP should continue to be part of a coalition.
“We are all part of a partnership. Why should we go alone if we are part of a partnership?”
Samuel said if his constituents wanted him to continue serving in the seat, he would offer himself for re-election.
In the coming days, Samuel will file his nomination papers.
“If it is decided that I am not the best person—amen to that.”
Samuel denied that the COP was a spent force.
Douglas: COP fell short on leadership
Incumbent Lopinot/Bon Air West MP Dr Lincoln Douglas is urging the COP to take a much firmer stand with the UNC when hammering out an arrangement for its selection of candidates.
Douglas who served as a COP deputy political leader admitted that the party fell short in some areas—mainly its leadership structure.
“Yes, I think in terms of insisting on the leadership structure of the party, I think we could have stood a lot stronger,” Douglas said.
He said this issue went back further than Ramadhar’s period of leadership.
Tomorrow, Douglas will file his nominations papers with the COP to be screened for the seat he has held for the past five years.
“If they find somebody better than me I would probably let them go ahead. So far they have not found anybody.”
Basdeo: UNC should stick to coalition formula
“If the UNC were to fight the election as a single entity they would be taking a gamble, a big risk...Seeing what has happened in the region with coalition politics being successful, I think the best bet is for them to stick with the formula that has been successful.”
Basdeo said though COP supporters had been lobbying for the party to stand on its own, this was neither practical nor sensible. “The COP could face a similar situation in 2007 where they captured 148,000 votes at the polls, but did not win one seat. Contesting the election as a single party could create a problem for them,” Basdeo said.
He said after the UNC’s nominations process wrapped up, he expected the leaders of the partnership to hammer out an arrangement.
James used the same analogy as Basdeo, citing the UNC’s winning the 2000 general election, but being toppled a year later.
He said based on historical trends, “it’s unlikely (the UNC) will win on their own. The UNC fully recognises this. That is why they became a coalition and won.”
While the UNC’s demographics had expanded in the last five years, James said, some people had become disenchanted. “There are also disagreements with the direction the party has been heading. So it is not as if the partnership has remained constant and unchanging. The question is, whether the conditions of 2000 are available today to make sure they can go on their own. I doubt that myself, having regard to the many blunders and scandals that they have been accused of. There is nothing I can point to that can suggest that.”