Political analyst Maukesh Basdeo says the current Fifa scandal involving Chaguanas West MP Jack Warner and subsequent allegations about his financing of the United National Congress (UNC) in 2010 could make a huge impact on voters, thus affecting the results of a poll showing Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar leading in the Barataria/San Juan constituency.
The poll, which was conducted before the scandal broke by H.H.B and Associates and featured on the On the Margin show on CNC3 last night, indicated that 42.8 per cent of constituents polled in the area felt Persad-Bissessar would make the best Prime Minister.
Opposition Leader Dr Keith Rowley was voted the best option for Prime Minister by 30.6 per cent of respondents while Warner trailed behind with eight per cent.
In a telephone interview yesterday, Basdeo said current issues involving Warner and allegations against the PM would impact the results.
“These polls represent a snapshot in time but opinions can change with new information,” Basdeo said, adding the issues, including criminal charges against Warner and ongoing public statements from both Warner and the People’s Partnership members were very serious issues.
“If a similar poll was conducted this or next week, the results would change.”
He said there was no way to know how the news would affect voters.
He added: “The scenarios would change. We can only speculate but the new info would have an impact.
“The central figure is Mr Warner. There could be a sympathy vote for Warner... that eight per cent could evaporate.
“There could be a decrease but if there is a decrease, the question is where would those votes go. The percentage decrease would result in an increase for someone else, whether Dr Rowley or the Prime Minister.”
Another analyst, Dr Bishnu Ragoonath, had a different view.
“The results of the poll may not necessarily change but people may start to challenge Mr Warner’s credibility.
“It would not create any significant impact on the ratings of the Prime Minister at this time,” Ragoonath said.
He added that whatever the polls said at the moment only represented what was occurring at that present time.
— With reporting by Kalifa Clyne