The latest poll conducted in San Fernando West by Louis Bertrand of H.H.B and associates, which showed that incumbent MP Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan has a 60 per cent unfavourable rating, can spell trouble for the People’s Partnership Government, says senior political analyst Winford James.
Saying San Fernando West which, like Tunapuna, is considered a marginal seat, James said greater analysis has to done once the poll findings are made public.
“It does spell trouble for the Congress of the People and that is not surprising. And if it spells trouble for the COP then it automatically spells trouble for the Partnership,” James said yesterday in response to the initial findings of the poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Guardian. The full details of the poll will be released tomorrow.
On the previous poll conducted by Bertrand, which also gave the PNM the advantage in Tunapuna, James said this had been the general consensus all along.
“Tunapuna, it appears, has been given the PNM the lead and that is what some of us have been saying...that the marginals would most likely go to the PNM,” he said.
He said while this may be good news for the Opposition the party, the PNM must not fall into complacency.
“It’s not something they can relax with. Elections are dynamic and they need to work at it,” James said.
Asked whether the PP Government would pick up popularity in the marginal once it revealed its candidates, James said this would depend on what contribution the candidates had to make.
“It all depends on the visibility of the candidates and I suppose that is one factor, but I would not put too much emphasis on that. I want to think that is not a big factor in the chances of the People’s Partnership Government.
“But we cannot tell for sure. Let’s wait and see who the PP chooses,” James added.
Giving his take on the San Fernando West poll, political analyst Mukesh Basdeo said the emphasis seemed to be on representation over the last four years. He said there were two sets of figures, one regarding Seepersad-Bachan as an individual and one as an MP.
“The respondents were able to differentiate Parliamentary representation as against individuality. They have given her a low score in what is considered a marginal constituency.
“But the likelihood can swing either way. The PNM has a candidate for that constituency and once the PP Government announces its candidates, then it would paint a better picture of how the marginals would swing,” Basdeo said.
In the case of Tunapuna, he said it was also a similar case.
“The PNM has selected candidates early so they can hit the ground. What the Partnership does would also be important as representation seems to be an issue,” Basdeo added.
On the polls saying that Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar had dropped in popularity in favour of Opposition Leader Dr Keith Rowley, Basdeo said it was still to early to determine how this factor would eventually pan out.