Political scientist Dr Winford James says the emergence of new third parties and independent political candidates will result in vote-splitting during September’s general election. He said they were unlikely to win seats in constituencies outside of a coalition. “If they take away even small numbers, though, it will result in splitting the vote.
“They may end up doing that and some may split the votes for the benefit of one of the major parties,” James said. He said while third parties may not have a major impact, it was good to “have noise in the system.” “It gives people something to discuss outside of the two race-based parties running this country.”
Since 1991, the two dominant political parties in T&T have been the People’s National Movement (PNM) and the United National Congress (UNC). Both parties have been described as race-based as the electorate have traditionally voted according to ethnicity with Trinidadians of Indian descent voting for the UNC while Trinidadians of African decent vote for the PNM.
According to James, third parties have only been able to win elections in this country when they are in coalition arrangements as is currently the case with the UNC, Congress of the People, Tobago Organisation of People and National Joint Action Committee, collectively known as the People’s Partnership.
James said the people “in the middle” who have not been enticed by either of the dominant parties may be inclined to listen to what third parties have to offer. He explained: “The lines in this country has been drawn along racial lines but there are a lot of people in the middle who are dissatisfied with what the two parties have to offer.” He said smaller parties which are trying to make a difference cannot achieve much by themselves.
“They don’t have a track record or a history or properly formulated ideas for people to support. These smaller parties are likely people who were involved with one of the major political parties who have become disgruntled and unhappy with what exists.” Using the recently-launched Third Force party as an example, James said the word force was used optimistically.
“They can take away votes from the PNM or the UNC but they can’t make a serious difference or win a seat.” As for independent candidate in Tobago, PSA president Watson Duke, James said he was sure the union leader would get votes. but wasn’t convinced Tobago was ready for independent politics.
Another political scientist, Maukesh Basdeo, said if third parties make an impact at all, it would be in “a handful of marginal seats.” He said party stronghold are not likely to be swayed by independent voices or smaller parties. Basdeo agreed that it would be difficult for any third party to win a seat outside of a coalition arrangement. He said splitting the vote, though a potential outcome, was unlikely.
“What we are seeing is the formation of niche parties, trying to represent a group of voters who are not aligned with the major parties,” Basdeo said. “Unless there is significant discontent to upset the incumbents in constituencies, I don’t think there will be a significant impact.”